Tesla China Registrations Are Up Vs. 2023 But Q1 Delivery Expectations Are Coming Down

Tesla (TSLA) vehicle insurance registrations in China last week increased sequentially but fell around 20% compared with the same period in 2023, as analysts began revising Q1 delivery estimates for the EV giant. TSLA shares angled higher Tuesday.


Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 13,200 last week, up 5.6% from the prior week, but down 22% compared to a year ago, according to data reported by CnEVPost.

Through the first ten-weeks of 2024, Tesla China insurance registrations totaled 90,400, up around 2.6% vs. the same time frame in 2023. Meanwhile, Wall Street consensus currently still has Q1 deliveries of 489,000 units, according to FactSet. Tesla is expected to report first-quarter deliveries in early April.

However, Deutsche Bank analysts on Monday wrote they expect Tesla to miss consensus estimates “by a wide margin.” The firm lowered its delivery Q1 estimate to 427,000, down from 476,000, due to low Model 3 production in the U.S., a slow Cybertruck ramp up and overall weaker EV demand.

Deutsche Bank also cut full-year deliveries estimate to 1.96 million units, below the consensus of 2.1 million.

Meanwhile, Gary Black, managing partner of the Future Fund, posted on X Monday that Wall Street’s consensus Q1 delivery view is too high. Black estimates Tesla will deliver 425,000 units in Q1, slightly above the 422,875 units Tesla delivered in Q1 2023.

Tesla hit a record 484,507 deliveries in Q4 2023. The previous quarterly delivery record was in Q2 with 466,140.

Tesla Stock Performance

TSLA shares advanced around 0.9% Tuesday during premarket action. Tesla stock angled 1.4% higher to 177.77 on Monday. However, TSLA shares remain down nearly 12% in March.

With 2023 in the rearview mirror, analyst consensus now has 2024 Tesla earnings below 2023’s level, signaling another year of negative growth for this growth stock.

Wall Street expects Tesla earnings per share of just $3.04 a share in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be a more than a 2% decline vs. last year’s $3.12.

Morgan Stanley Tesla bull Adam Jonas last week issued an investor note in which he cut his Tesla 2024 earnings projections by 25%, saying that the EV giant could “potentially” lose money this year.

Jonas slashed his Tesla price target to 320, down from 345, but maintained an overweight rating on the shares. Jonas also whittled down his Tesla 2024 EPS projections to $1.51, his previous view was $2.04 per share, with auto gross profit margins, excluding regulatory credits, sinking to 11.4% as the analyst foresees continued demand issues for EVs.

So far in 2024, Tesla stock has retreated more than 28%, falling below key levels of support. Charlie Bilello, the chief market strategist at Creative Planning, has noted that Tesla stock has been in a drawdown for 855 days, the second longest downturn since its initial public offering (IPO) in 2010. Tesla stock is currently 57% below its November 2021 high 0f 414.50.

The EV giant ranks eighth in the 35 member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 30 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Tesla stock also has an 11 Relative Strength Rating and a 67 EPS Rating.

Please follow Kit Norton on X, formerly known as Twitter, @KitNorton for more coverage.


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